Ronald Stoeferle: In Gold We Trust 2017
Ronald joins us to discuss his free annual 160 page report called “In Gold we Trust”. Last year he stated that we were at the very beginning of a bull market in gold, however he says that was stopped by Donald Trump. Gold and commodities are dirt cheap when compared to stocks. Equities, bonds, and real estate are at or near their all time highs. He thinks the dollar is close to rolling over.
He calls the market the “everything bubble”, as just in the first quarter of 2017 the biggest central banks printed one trillion dollars, this is “advanced monetary surrealism”. The complacency that we are seeing in markets will likely lead to a crisis that will make 2008 look like a kindergarten party.
He talks about how recessions are normal and healthy in markets, but this is something that governments and central banks now wish to avoid. Tax receipts are falling off a cliff, loan growth is sluggish, industry is slow, and interest rates are rising. They have lost credibility over the last few years, and are trying to regain it, however he thinks they are tightening into weakness. At some point there will be talk of Fed rate reductions and discussion of another round of QE, this is when gold will make the next leg up.
In the near term their could be some further downside, he points out that gold is up when compared to most currencies of the world.
Ronald discusses mining equities and makes some comparisons, we are at a very attractive price level. Gold has experienced the longest bear market since 1942 in terms of both length and performance.
Talking Points From This Week’s Episode
• We are in the “Everything Bubble” with the exception of commodities.
• Inflation dynamics will drive gold higher, stagflation is currently occurring.
• Recession is coming, most economists are forecasting it.
• Geopolitical tensions are increasing, likely to have an effect on oil prices.
• Fed is discussing raising inflation targets to three or four percent.
Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, is a Chartered Market Technician and a Certified Financial Technician. During his studies in business administration and finance at the Vienna University of Economics and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, he worked for Raiffeisen Zentralbank in the field of Fixed Income/Credit Investments. After graduating from university, Stoeferle joined Vienna based Erste Group Bank, covering International Equities, especially Asia. In 2006 he began writing reports on gold and gained media attention when he expected the price of gold to rise to USD 2,300/ounce when the current price was only at USD 500. His six benchmark reports called “In Gold we Trust” drew international coverage on CNBC, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, Economist and the Financial Times.
In 2013 he became managing director and partner of Incrementum AG, based in the Principality of Liechtenstein. The company focuses on asset management and wealth management and is one hundred percent owned by its partners. He continues to write the annual “In Gold we Trust” as a senior advisor to Erste Group.